Ferro-Nickel Prices Slightly Increase, Resources Tighten, Transactions Booming [SMM Nickel Morning Brief]

February 12 Nickel Morning Meeting Summary

Refined Nickel:

SMM February 11 News: Spot Premiums/Discounts: The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan Nickel No. 1 was 2,000-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The premium/discount quotation range for Russian nickel was -200 to 0 yuan/mt, with an average premium of -100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan compared to the previous trading day.

Futures Market: Nickel prices opened lower in the morning, with a decline of 1.7%, reaching a low of 124,820 yuan.

Spot Premiums: The premium for Jinchuan brand nickel slightly decreased compared to yesterday, possibly influenced by the strengthening US dollar overseas and the Trump administration's tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which heightened market uncertainty. Spot premiums/discounts for other nickel plate brands in the spot market showed relatively small changes overall.

Nickel prices opened lower today. The premium for Jinchuan brand nickel showed slight loosening. Spot premiums/discounts for other nickel plate brands remained largely stable this month. From a technical perspective, the SHFE Nickel 2503 contract closed below the 20-day moving average and showed a downward trend, with a short-term bearish outlook and bears slightly dominating.

Nickel Sulphate Price Spread: Today, nickel briquette prices ranged from 124,150 to 124,650 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,400 yuan/mt, down 1,775 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel.

Nickel Ore:

Supply side, Indonesia has approved 207 RKABs, with APNI data indicating that the approved RKAB quota for 2025 is 298 million wmt. In January, most mines passed the SIMBARA system review, and shipments proceeded normally. Demand side, the issuance of temporary quotas and reduced premiums in Q4 2024 left downstream smelters with about one month of raw material inventory. From a supply-demand perspective, domestic trade ore supply in Indonesia is relatively ample, with increased market circulation. Compared to the same period early last year, the supply looseness is more evident. However, as downstream smelters consume their inventories, SMM expects concentrated stockpiling after the Chinese New Year. Market transactions: Upstream and downstream negotiations were active this month, with market sentiment significantly improving compared to the previous week. In January, mainstream transaction premiums for Indonesian medium- to high-grade nickel ore were concentrated at $15-17, rising to $17-18 in early February, with some transactions exceeding $20 premiums. SMM expects Indonesian nickel ore prices to fluctuate upward in the future.

Nickel Sulphate:

On February 11, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,598 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 26,400-27,080 yuan/mt, and the average price remained unchanged from the previous day.

Cost side, LME nickel prices pulled back slightly to $15,480 today, weakening cost support slightly. Demand side, some precursor plants have completed February stockpiling, with some inventories meeting immediate needs, though procurement demand still exists. Supply side, some nickel salt smelters have not resumed operations, while others have started quoting and negotiating orders. Current smelter quotations are largely stable compared to last week, with spot order transactions sluggish. Comprehensive analysis suggests that sentiment to stand firm on quotes due to cost losses and existing procurement demand may lead to slightly stronger prices in the near term.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):

On February 11, SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI averaged 955 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 4 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, Philippine nickel ore prices remained largely stable, while domestic smelters continued to operate at a loss, with production slightly recovering after seasonal maintenance. In Indonesia, overall production decreased in February, with adjustments in a major production area leading to a slight decline in total output. Demand side, the stainless steel market has not fully recovered after the Chinese New Year holiday, with poor stainless steel shipments and subdued raw material procurement sentiment from steel mills. Some traders hold strong expectations for the market, with active inquiries and heated transaction sentiment. With tightening market circulation, high-grade NPI prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term.

Stainless Steel:

On February 11, stainless steel futures prices edged down, while spot prices remained stable or dropped slightly. Steel mills aimed to boost spot prices with high opening prices, but due to large pre-holiday inventories and market expectations, both futures and spot prices failed to rise significantly and instead edged downward. 304 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were 13,000-13,350 yuan/mt, 304 HRC prices in Wuxi were 12,450-12,600 yuan/mt. 316L cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were 23,800-24,200 yuan/mt. 201J1 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt. 430 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were 7,200-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 AM, the SHFE SS2503 contract price was 13,245 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums/discounts at -75 to 275 yuan/mt (spot trimmed = untrimmed + 170 yuan/mt).

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